Nifty Outlook : Monday, 21st September 2020 – Chandan Taparia
Nifty index remained in a narrow range of 200 points for most part of the week where declines were bought but absence of buying interest at higher zones was clearly visible. During the week it headed towards 11600 zones but selling pressure at higher zones took it back to 11500 marks. On the last trading session, it failed to surpass previous day’s high of 11587 and after a consolidative move it fell down to 11450 levels in the last hour of the session. It formed a Bearish Belt Hold or a Bearish Engulfing candle on daily scale while Spinning Top kind of candle on weekly scale and remained under pressure for most part of the session. RSI indicator is now turning lower on daily scale which suggests testing of lower support with consolidative move along with capped upside. Now it has to respect an immediate support of 11450 zones, to witness an up move towards 11600-11650 zones while on the downside next major support exists at 11350-11333 zones.
Stocks (spot levels) :
INDIA VIX fell down by 3.20% from 20.71 to 20.04 levels on weekly basis. VIX needs to cool down below 20-18 zones to get the bull’s grip for the next leg of rally. On option front, Maximum Put OI is at 11500 followed by 11000 strike, while maximum Call OI is at 12000 followed by 11600 strike. We have seen Call writing at 12000 then 11800 strike while Put writing is seen at 11500 then 11200 strike. Option data suggests a trading range in between 11300 to 11700 zones.
Bank Nifty broke its multiple support of 22000 zones and gave a lowest daily close in last 20 trading sessions. It formed a Bearish candle on daily and weekly scale by underperforming the Nifty index from the last couple of trading sessions. Bank Nifty futures closed the week with loss of 2.04% with increase in Open interest by 12.78% on a weekly basis which suggests built up of short position. Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Bank Nifty remained in between 0.67 to 0.87 and it closed the week at its lower band suggesting weakness moving forward. Now if it sustains below 22000 zones then weakness could be seen towards 21750 then 21500 zones while on the upside key hurdles are likely to be at 22500 and 22750 zones.
NIFTY : OPTION STRATEGY : SHORT STRANGLE : -11200 PE – 11750 CE : (24th September, Monthly expiry)
SELL 1 LOT OF 11200 PUT @ 25
SELL 1 LOT OF 11750 CALL @ 15
NET PREMIUM RECEIVED : 40 POINTS
LBEP : 11160
UBEP : 11790
RISK : UNLIMITED IF IT EXPIRES BELOW 11160 OR ABOVE 11790
KEEP SL OF NET PREMIUM OF : 40 POINTS TO AVOID UNLIMITED RISK SCENARIO
MAX REWARD : 40 POINTS (REWARD OF Rs.3000/- IF IT EXPIRES IN BETWEEN 11200 TO 11750 ZONES)
Nifty got stuck in range where declines are being bought but follow up is also missing Put Call Ratio has seen recovery from lower zones with Put writing at immediate strikes could hold the support Intact Call Writing is keeping the capped upside on immediate basis. Thus, suggesting Short Strangle to get the benefit of time decay and range bound market bias.
Fx Technical By Mr. Kishore Narne, Head – Currency & Commodities, MOFSL
USD/INR Status: Sideways-to-lower move looks possible in short-term!
CMP: 73.48, Target: 72.80 Stop Loss: 74.05
Trade: Short-term trend looks negative as long as the pair is trading below the resistance of 74.05 level. Selling on rallies is advised targeting lower support at 72.80 level.
GBPUSD Status: Short-term trend remains negative!
CMP: 1.2936, Target: 1.2700, Stop Loss: 1.3150
Trade: The pair is having short-term resistance near 1.3150 mark and a dip towards lower support at 1.2700 looks likely. Selling on rallies is advised.
By Amit Sajeja, AVP- Commodities, MOFSL
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