As reported September 8 to Long term targets, GBP/USD contained a 2020 target at 1.3200’s yet traded to 1.3400’s. GBP/USD traded again to 1.3400’s and matched its 2019 target. GBP/USD long term targets dropped 200 pip per year and the exact same pip count as AUD/USD yearly targets.
To follow standard reversal formulas to normal price trading upon target completion, 300 and 600 pips becomes the bottom points. From 1.3400’s and counting 600 pips, GBP/USD 1.2800’s is current bottoms. Current GBP/USD 1.2800’s remains solid at 1.2892, 1.2868, 1.2860 and 1.2829.
From 1.3486 top to 1.2823 lows,, GBP/USD traded 663 pips and close to the 600 pip formula. GBP/USD then bounced to current 1.3000’s.
From GBP/USD 1.3486 top and the 300 pip count then becomes a danger zone as 300 pips at 1.3186 now bumps against the 5 year average at 1.3166.
GBP/USD is now caught between a 300 pip trading range from the 5 year average at 1.3166 and the vital break at 1.2860. Below 1.2860 then GBP/USD trades much lower. A 300 pip trading range is fairly standard in currency markets today over the past 3 and 4 years. And again matches the 300 and 600 pip formulas.
The overall driver to GBP/USD are many long term averages at 1.5000’s. Currently, averages at 1.5000’s are deeply oversold and any drops to GBP/USD then the averages achieves richter scale oversold. In the way of top averages at 1.5800’s is the 5 year average at 1.3166, 10 year average at 1.4526 and 14 year average at 1.5406.
GBP/USD from 1.4526 to 1.3166 equates to 1360 pips or a mid point at 680 pips. From 600 pips is then broken down to 300 pips to factor overall trading ranges.
USD/CAD 5 year average is located at 1.3190 and the 10 year at 1.1922. At 1268 pips, a mid point exists at 634 pips and again the 600 pip formula.
Longer term, USD/CAD is overbought and matches GBP/USD oversold.
Weekly Trades GBP/USD and USD/CAD
GBP/USD and USD/CAD are the exact same pairs with matching exchange rates except both trade in opposite directions. Daytrades for GBP/USD and USD/CAD move by exact pips only in different directions. The daytrade count falls into the 300 and 600 pip formula.
GBPP/USD is deeply overbought while USD/CAD is deeply oversold.
Short Anywhere or 1.3049 and 1.3064 to target 1.2892.
Short below 1.2860 to target 1.2765.
Long 1.2765 to target 1.2829
long 1.2892 to target 1.2954
Long Anywhere or 1.3104 and 1.3100 to target 1.3341
Long above 1.3359 to target 1.3470.
Short 1.3470 to target 1.3396.
short 1.3341 to target 1.3247.
Note to GBP/USD target at 1.2892 and USD/CAD at 1.3341. GBP/USD current opening price at 1.3041 and USD/CAD 1.3115, a separation of 74 pips. The visual to the GBP short trade is GBP/USD trades below USD/CAD. For GBP/USD to trade higher, it must cross above USD/CAD. For USD/CAD to trade lower, it must cross below GBP/USD.
At 74 pips warns to a giant move ahead for both GBP/USD and USD/CAD as both will meet the 300 and 600 criteria.
All trades as usual are factored by pen, paper and calculator. No stops, charts, graphs nor screen watching.